FORECASTING THE TRANSFORMATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL TO ENSURE SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM THE REGIONS OF UZBEKISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21339436Abstract
This article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations for forecasting the transformational
development of human capital in the context of sustainable economic growth. It provides a systematic analysis of the
interrelationships among education, healthcare, employment, labor productivity, innovation activity, digital competencies,
and institutional factors, and evaluates their impact on regional economic development. Based on the findings, a forecasting
model for the transformational development of human capital, taking into account the socio-economic characteristics of
the regions of Uzbekistan, is proposed, and optimistic, baseline, and conservative development scenarios are developed.
The proposed approach enables the assessment of future trends in human capital development across regions, improves
the effectiveness of strategic planning, and provides scientific and practical recommendations for ensuring sustainable
economic growth.
Keywords
human capital, transformational development, human capital forecasting, sustainable economic growth, regional development, development scenarios, strategic forecasting, labor productivity, innovation development.References
Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. New York:
Macmillan.
Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. London: Economica.
Schwartz, P. (1996). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday.
Inayatullah, S. (2007). Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation. Taipei:
Tamkang University Press.
Dator, J. A. (2002). Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education. Westport, CT: Praeger.
Slaughter, R. A. (1996). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies. Indooroopilly, Australia: Foresight International.
UNESCO. (2021). Reimagining Our Futures Together: A New Social Contract for Education. Paris: UNESCO Publishing.
International Labour Organization (ILO). (2024). World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024. Geneva: ILO.
World Economic Forum. (2025). The Future of Jobs Report 2025. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
World Bank. (2020). The Human Capital Project 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19. Washington, DC:
World Bank.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2024). Human Development Report 2023/2024. New York: UNDP.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2024). OECD Employment Outlook 2024. Paris:
OECD Publishing.
Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2025). Socio-Economic Situation of the Republic of Uzbekistan in
: Statistical Yearbook. Tashkent: Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Uzbekistan.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
