INTEGRATION OF THE UNIFIED NATIONAL QR CODE STANDARD AND LIQUIDITY FORECASTING: THE EXPERIENCE OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This article analyzes the unified national QR code system (UzQR), introduced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan as mandatory for all trade and service entities from July 1, 2026, and examines its possible impact on the practice of short-term forecasting of banking system liquidity. It consists of the scientific assessment of the impact of integrating the unified national QR code standard in the Republic of Uzbekistan on the functioning of payment systems and banking system liquidity, the development of scientific and methodological approaches to real-time liquidity forecasting for the Central Bank based on QR code transaction data, and the development of practical recommendations aimed at increasing the effectiveness of liquidity management and monetary policy decision-making. The analysis shows that a centralized and high-frequency flow of transactional data within a unified standardized payment infrastructure has the potential to increase the accuracy of the Central Bank’s forecasting of autonomous factors such as currency in circulation and current account balances; however, this potential is realized only on the condition of the institutional integration of the data into the liquidity forecasting model. The results of the study serve as a methodological basis for formulating scientific and practical recommendations aimed at improving the cashless payment infrastructure in the Republic of Uzbekistan, raising the financial literacy of the population, and increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation.