EMPLOYMENT INTENSITY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: EVIDENCE FROM EMPLOYMENT ELASTICITIES AND OKUN’S LAW, 2010–2025

Abstract

This article examines the extent to which economic growth across the regions of Uzbekistan translates into employment growth and lower unemployment. Using official annual data from the National Statistics Committee for 14 territorial units—the Republic of Karakalpakstan, 12 regions and Tashkent city—over 2010–2025, the study estimates arc employment elasticities of real gross regional product (GRP) and panel versions of Okun’s law, treating the 2018 revision of labour statistics as a structural break. The national employment elasticity was 0.28 in 2018–2025, or 0.21 when the preliminary 2025 data are excluded, compared with 0.31 in 2010–2017. Regional elasticities ranged from 0.09 in Tashkent region and 0.10 in Bukhara to 0.47 in Jizzakh and Tashkent city. Pooled panel estimates for 2019–2025 yield an employment elasticity of 0.56 and an Okun coefficient of −0.16 to −0.21, indicating that one additional percentage point of GRP growth is associated with an approximately 0.2 percentage-point decline in regional unemployment, while about 2.4% annual growth is required to keep unemployment stable. After controlling for common year effects, however, neither relationship remains statistically significant, suggesting that cross-regional growth differences do not correspond to comparable differences in job creation. Employment dynamics appear to be influenced primarily by nationwide factors, while capital-intensive regions such as Tashkent and Navoi generate relatively fewer jobs per unit of growth. The study proposes a four-group regional typology and outlines implications for employment-oriented regional development.