THE IMPACT OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE AND PUBLIC DEBT ON NATIONAL CURRENCY STABILITY: THEORETICAL APPROACHES AND MODELING
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22345836Abstract
The mechanisms through which fiscal discipline and public debt dynamics affect the stability of Uzbekistan’s
national currency, the Uzbek soum, are examined from theoretical and empirical perspectives. The study aims to identify
the factors determining exchange rate stability and assess their relative effects based on indicators of the budget deficit,
public debt, inflation, and international reserves over the 2020–2025 period. The methodological framework is based
on official statistical bulletins of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, reports of the Ministry of Economy and
Finance, data from the Statistics Agency, as well as Article IV Consultation reports and Debt Sustainability Analyses
(DSA) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. A multifactor econometric model is developed
using correlation and regression analysis, trend analysis, and comparative analysis. In the model, changes in the
exchange rate are specified as a function of factors associated with public debt, the budget deficit, inflation, and international
reserves.
Keywords
fiscal discipline; public debt; national currency stability; budget deficit; exchange rate; inflation; international reserves; macroeconomic modeling.References
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