AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE FINANCING OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21885423Abstract
This article presents an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the financing of investment projects in the
Republic of Uzbekistan. Three methods are applied jointly: estimation of a trend model based on 2019–2025 data,
decomposition of the contribution of individual financing sources to investment growth, and measurement of shifts in
the structure of financing sources using the Gatev index. The estimated exponential trend model has high explanatory
power (R² = 0.9566), and the average annual growth rate of investment over the period amounted to 20.5 per cent. The
decomposition shows that, of the 10.94 percentage points of growth recorded in 2025, 8.70 percentage points, or 79.5
per cent, are attributable to foreign investment and loans; together with foreign loans extended under state guarantees,
external sources account for 93.2 per cent of the growth. Enterprises’ own funds, while representing 15.3 per cent of total
investment, contributed only 1.1 per cent of the growth. The Gatev index value of 0.4131 confirms a considerably high
degree of structural change in financing sources over the 2022–2025 period. Conclusions and policy recommendations
are formulated on the basis of the identified regularities
Keywords
investment project, financing factors, empirical analysis, trend model, growth contribution decomposition, structural shift, Gatev index, foreign investment, bank credit, financing sourcesReferences
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